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Commencement Speech by Prof. Justin Yifu Lin

Apr 18-2013   



 

Mr. Chuanzhi Liu, Dr. Raymond Chi’e, President Zhou, Dr. Qiren Zhou, Dr. Ho-Mou Wu,

The entire faculty of NSD, all the graduates, and parents:

Good Morning, Today is the 2012 PKU National School of Development (NSD) commencement ceremony. I know that all of you must be anxious about entering the world outside. Dr. Wu has told you that I went to the World Bank four years ago after conducting a speech just like this. To me, this four-year is a process of learning. Now I would like to share with you my observation and study about the future of domestic and global economy.

First of all, as we all know,many developed countries are currently trapped by the slump of 2008 global financial crisis. Developed countries including the United States, members of EU, and Japan are likely to suffer from long-lasting effects including slow economic growth and low rate of return on investment. The global business environment that you will be facing is going to be very challenging.

Despite of all the unfavorable conditions, my faith in the Chinese economy remains firm. The global economic depression will certainly take its toll on the Chinese economy since China has been the world’s largest exporter. However, in the short term, China has ample resources and opportunities to carry out counter-cyclical stimulus – as a developing country, China can still invest in high ROI projects including industrial upgrade, infrastructure improvement, environmental protection, and social engineering to promote its domestic economic growth. At the same time, Chinese government has one of the healthiest financial conditions in the world – the fiscal deficit of Chinese government only takes up 40% of its GDP, while many developed countries have their deficits exceeding 100% or even 200% of their GDPs. The Chinese government can also use its finance capital as a leverage to invest abundant civil savings into its projects. When it comes to invest in foreign technology and equipment, China has the largest foreign reserve. All these factors point to a conclusion that China will maintain a sustainable growth rate of 8% or higher, despite of the unstable global situation.

On the long term, sustainable economic growth of a country relies on technological innovation and ongoing industrial upgrade. As a developing country, China has great potential in technological innovation and industrial upgrade. If we can take advantage of this potential, China will maintain the growth rate of 8% for at least the next twenty years. If my calculation is correct, you will be living the transformation of China into a world power. This will be the time that generations of Chinese people have been sacrificing and waiting for.

Before I left for World Bank in 2008, I predicted that the scale of Chinese economy would match that of the United States in 2030. If China can maintain its outstanding performance during this global depression, the time it takes for China to own the world’s largest economy can be five, or even ten years shorter than my prediction. The world you are stepping into is full of opportunity and hope.

Of course, everything I said is merely a possibility. Firstly, under the unfavorable international environment, there will be myriad hindrances for China to sustain its high growth rate. The future of China, along with the challenges, is on your shoulder. It will take dedication and effort for you to lead this country into prosperity.

Secondly, we are in an era of international power shift that had last occurred three centuries ago. There will be a lot of emerging challenges that have never been studied before. Therefore, like Dr. Ma Hao and Mr. Liu Chuanzhi have said before, theories from the past may not be suitable to solve today’s problem, and you need to be the leaders and make a difference. You need to look at the problems with open minds and creativity, and I believe that you will lead this nation into a glorious future.

Thirdly, the sustainable growth of Chinese economy will bring an increasing influence on global events. As a student of the PKU, as an elite of the Chinese society, your mind should not be confined to the boundary of China, but be open to the entire world. You should not be satisfied. You should live up to the high standard of a world leader, because you will be the ones to shoulder the task of leading this country.

Fourthly,the rise of Chinese nation should not be only characterized by its strong economy and rising living standard, but also be featured by its cultural advancement. You will carry forward the traditional virtues of Chinese people and take care of those who are in need.

Lastly, I hope that when you step out of this campus, you will be settled with the most appropriate jobs. In order to overcome all the challenges I have mentioned above and dedicate to the cause of your nation, all of you need to be tough both mentally and physically.

I believe the knowledge you have learned and characters you have developed at this university will bring you a satisfactory future. I hope that in the next several decades, you will be standing here and proudly say that you have made a difference in bringing a bright future for the world, for this nation, and for yourselves.

Commencement Speech by Prof. Justin Yifu Lin

Apr 18-2013   



 

Mr. Chuanzhi Liu, Dr. Raymond Chi’e, President Zhou, Dr. Qiren Zhou, Dr. Ho-Mou Wu,

The entire faculty of NSD, all the graduates, and parents:

Good Morning, Today is the 2012 PKU National School of Development (NSD) commencement ceremony. I know that all of you must be anxious about entering the world outside. Dr. Wu has told you that I went to the World Bank four years ago after conducting a speech just like this. To me, this four-year is a process of learning. Now I would like to share with you my observation and study about the future of domestic and global economy.

First of all, as we all know,many developed countries are currently trapped by the slump of 2008 global financial crisis. Developed countries including the United States, members of EU, and Japan are likely to suffer from long-lasting effects including slow economic growth and low rate of return on investment. The global business environment that you will be facing is going to be very challenging.

Despite of all the unfavorable conditions, my faith in the Chinese economy remains firm. The global economic depression will certainly take its toll on the Chinese economy since China has been the world’s largest exporter. However, in the short term, China has ample resources and opportunities to carry out counter-cyclical stimulus – as a developing country, China can still invest in high ROI projects including industrial upgrade, infrastructure improvement, environmental protection, and social engineering to promote its domestic economic growth. At the same time, Chinese government has one of the healthiest financial conditions in the world – the fiscal deficit of Chinese government only takes up 40% of its GDP, while many developed countries have their deficits exceeding 100% or even 200% of their GDPs. The Chinese government can also use its finance capital as a leverage to invest abundant civil savings into its projects. When it comes to invest in foreign technology and equipment, China has the largest foreign reserve. All these factors point to a conclusion that China will maintain a sustainable growth rate of 8% or higher, despite of the unstable global situation.

On the long term, sustainable economic growth of a country relies on technological innovation and ongoing industrial upgrade. As a developing country, China has great potential in technological innovation and industrial upgrade. If we can take advantage of this potential, China will maintain the growth rate of 8% for at least the next twenty years. If my calculation is correct, you will be living the transformation of China into a world power. This will be the time that generations of Chinese people have been sacrificing and waiting for.

Before I left for World Bank in 2008, I predicted that the scale of Chinese economy would match that of the United States in 2030. If China can maintain its outstanding performance during this global depression, the time it takes for China to own the world’s largest economy can be five, or even ten years shorter than my prediction. The world you are stepping into is full of opportunity and hope.

Of course, everything I said is merely a possibility. Firstly, under the unfavorable international environment, there will be myriad hindrances for China to sustain its high growth rate. The future of China, along with the challenges, is on your shoulder. It will take dedication and effort for you to lead this country into prosperity.

Secondly, we are in an era of international power shift that had last occurred three centuries ago. There will be a lot of emerging challenges that have never been studied before. Therefore, like Dr. Ma Hao and Mr. Liu Chuanzhi have said before, theories from the past may not be suitable to solve today’s problem, and you need to be the leaders and make a difference. You need to look at the problems with open minds and creativity, and I believe that you will lead this nation into a glorious future.

Thirdly, the sustainable growth of Chinese economy will bring an increasing influence on global events. As a student of the PKU, as an elite of the Chinese society, your mind should not be confined to the boundary of China, but be open to the entire world. You should not be satisfied. You should live up to the high standard of a world leader, because you will be the ones to shoulder the task of leading this country.

Fourthly,the rise of Chinese nation should not be only characterized by its strong economy and rising living standard, but also be featured by its cultural advancement. You will carry forward the traditional virtues of Chinese people and take care of those who are in need.

Lastly, I hope that when you step out of this campus, you will be settled with the most appropriate jobs. In order to overcome all the challenges I have mentioned above and dedicate to the cause of your nation, all of you need to be tough both mentally and physically.

I believe the knowledge you have learned and characters you have developed at this university will bring you a satisfactory future. I hope that in the next several decades, you will be standing here and proudly say that you have made a difference in bringing a bright future for the world, for this nation, and for yourselves.