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Domestic Trade in Ascendance

May 22-2019   



 

Foreign trade now accounts for around 18% of China’s GDP, a figure that will continue to go downward and may eventually hit 10% or even less, says Prof. Yao Yang, Dean of NSD, in an exclusive media interview. In contrast, consumption may rise up to 80% of GDP in 20-30 years’ time – just like in the US – whilst investment’s contribution will be negligible, he says.

 

His remarks come at a time when the escalation of trade wars looms large. Confident that a deal will be reached between China and US by the end of June, he says that China shouldn’t be too worried about the flurry of changes that might happen because its own market is large enough. The worst scenario: even if Chinese enterprises can no longer go abroad and can only sell domestically, the Chinese economy won’t be severely affected. The EU provides an example. He points to the formation of several economic belts in China, such as the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin area, Zhengzhou-Wuhan-Changsha Area and some inland city clusters.

 

He also speaks about the impact (or the lack thereof) of 5G and AI on economic growth, the re-balancing of disposable income and GDP, and the rise of populism, among other issues.

Domestic Trade in Ascendance

May 22-2019   



 

Foreign trade now accounts for around 18% of China’s GDP, a figure that will continue to go downward and may eventually hit 10% or even less, says Prof. Yao Yang, Dean of NSD, in an exclusive media interview. In contrast, consumption may rise up to 80% of GDP in 20-30 years’ time – just like in the US – whilst investment’s contribution will be negligible, he says.

 

His remarks come at a time when the escalation of trade wars looms large. Confident that a deal will be reached between China and US by the end of June, he says that China shouldn’t be too worried about the flurry of changes that might happen because its own market is large enough. The worst scenario: even if Chinese enterprises can no longer go abroad and can only sell domestically, the Chinese economy won’t be severely affected. The EU provides an example. He points to the formation of several economic belts in China, such as the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin area, Zhengzhou-Wuhan-Changsha Area and some inland city clusters.

 

He also speaks about the impact (or the lack thereof) of 5G and AI on economic growth, the re-balancing of disposable income and GDP, and the rise of populism, among other issues.