New Trends in Population Aging

Apr 22-2020   

From the end of 1970s, China’s Total Dependency Ratio began to decrease significantly and benefit economic growth as more savings were accumulated in lieu of being spent on rearing offsprings. However, the underlying cause of TDR, namely low reproductive rate, has resulted in a low proportion of 0-14 year olds in the population and will impact the future growth of labor-age population and the economic growth, finds a paper by Bai Chen, a lecturer of the People’s University, and Prof. Lei Xiaoyan of the NSD. The paper was published by China Economic Journal, an academic journal affiliated with the NSD and published and distributed by Routledge Journals.

Besides TDR, another major challenge for China is population aging. The authors find that China will encounter the largest wave of population aging in the next 30 years, characterized by more individuals among the oldest-olds, more empty-nest elderly, and greater elderly dependency. After 2030, China will count 11 million more elderlies per year, who will outnumber children and become the major source of pressure for the labor-age population. Meanwhile, as family size contracts, more elderlies will live on their own, from 18 million in 2010 to 50 million in 2050.

These trends will impose challenges for China’s sustainable development on the supply and demands sides in the long term. Consequently, it is not only necessary to improve the old-age security system, but also to implement more innovative strategies to deepen human resource development, including among the older population.