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Environmental Improvement under New Normal

Aug 31-2020   



A paper in China Economic Journal finds that the contribution of economic slowdown to pollution reduction in China ranges from 10-30%, indicating the importance of considering economic slowdown when evaluating the effects of other factors related to the environmental improvement in China.

 

China Economic Journal is affiliated with the NSD and published by Routledge for global academic readership. Its latest issue focuses on policy and regulatory reforms for green economic transition in China. The above-mentioned paper, The Environmental Improvement under China’s ‘New Normal’, is co-authored by Shilie Liu and Jintao Xu of the NSD, Yu Liu of Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Lunyu Xie of Renmin University.

 

In exploring the factors that lead to pollution reduction, most literature has ignored the slowing economic growth under the ‘New Normal’ of China. This omission could lead to the overestimation of the pollution reduction effects of other factors. In the paper, the authors estimate the effect of the economic slowdown using a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE).

 

Based on the simulation results from the CGE model, the authors find that polluting emissions could be 10% lower than the baseline scenario, due to many driving forces, including technological innovation, the change of energy structure, strengthened environmental regulation and other economic and social factors. The contribution of the economic slowdown to the reduction of emissions ranges from 10-30%. For example, the emissions of NH3 in 2025 will be 4% lower compared to the baseline scenario, of which 1.17% is due to the economic slowdown. The effect varies across industries because industries have been affected to different degrees by the economic slowdown. The traditional manufacturing and processing industries such as fertilizer, pesticides, chemistry, clothes and paper have had the largest reductions in emissions, and the advanced manufacturing industries and energy industries have been affected the least.

Environmental Improvement under New Normal

Aug 31-2020   



A paper in China Economic Journal finds that the contribution of economic slowdown to pollution reduction in China ranges from 10-30%, indicating the importance of considering economic slowdown when evaluating the effects of other factors related to the environmental improvement in China.

 

China Economic Journal is affiliated with the NSD and published by Routledge for global academic readership. Its latest issue focuses on policy and regulatory reforms for green economic transition in China. The above-mentioned paper, The Environmental Improvement under China’s ‘New Normal’, is co-authored by Shilie Liu and Jintao Xu of the NSD, Yu Liu of Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Lunyu Xie of Renmin University.

 

In exploring the factors that lead to pollution reduction, most literature has ignored the slowing economic growth under the ‘New Normal’ of China. This omission could lead to the overestimation of the pollution reduction effects of other factors. In the paper, the authors estimate the effect of the economic slowdown using a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE).

 

Based on the simulation results from the CGE model, the authors find that polluting emissions could be 10% lower than the baseline scenario, due to many driving forces, including technological innovation, the change of energy structure, strengthened environmental regulation and other economic and social factors. The contribution of the economic slowdown to the reduction of emissions ranges from 10-30%. For example, the emissions of NH3 in 2025 will be 4% lower compared to the baseline scenario, of which 1.17% is due to the economic slowdown. The effect varies across industries because industries have been affected to different degrees by the economic slowdown. The traditional manufacturing and processing industries such as fertilizer, pesticides, chemistry, clothes and paper have had the largest reductions in emissions, and the advanced manufacturing industries and energy industries have been affected the least.