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Bright Economic Prospect and Promising Theoretical Innovation

Sep 10-2020   



On August 24th, Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, chaired a symposium on economic and social work in Beijing. Prof. Justin Lin Yifu of the NSD was among the nine experts invited to offer their suggestions and opinions about China’s 14th Five-Year Plan.

 

Prof. Lin is the honorary dean of the NSD and dean of both the Institute of New Structural Economics and the Institute of South-South Cooperation and Development at PKU. In an interview with People’s Daily online, he used such key words as confidence, opportunity, and responsibility to comment on the speech by President Xi at the symposium. He spoke highly of the accurate judgment and clear thinking of the senior leadership, and had full confidence in China’s growth potential and bright prospect in the period of its 14th Five-Year Plan. As for scholars in the economic and social fields, Prof. Lin believed “we should not fall short of the opportunities offered by this era for theoretical innovation.”

 

Prof. Lin said that in its current stage of development, China enjoys dual advantages: late-comer advantage and ‘change-lane-and-overtake’ advantage. By 2030, China still possesses annual growth potential of 8% on the supply side, and how much of it can be realized depends on the demand side. The sluggish external demand notwithstanding, the large domestic market will offer abundant thrust. The dual circulation, coupled with key factors such as technology and human capital as well as institutional advantages, can lead to stable growth of 5-6% per year.

 

By 2025, China will have crossed the threshold of USD12,736 in capita income and emerge as a high-income nation. Based on market exchange rates, China’s economic volume will surpass that of the US in 2030 or so and become the world’s largest. By 2050, China’s per capita GDP will reach half that of the US, while its economic output might be twice that of the latter. Technologically, China will be on a par with the US at that time.

 

As its economy surging to be the largest in the world in 2030 or so, China’s phenomena and problems will be the most important ones in the world. Therefore, theories born out of such phenomena and problems will be the most influential ones in the world, comparable to the theories developed in the UK and the US when they were respectively the largest economic body.

Bright Economic Prospect and Promising Theoretical Innovation

Sep 10-2020   



On August 24th, Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, chaired a symposium on economic and social work in Beijing. Prof. Justin Lin Yifu of the NSD was among the nine experts invited to offer their suggestions and opinions about China’s 14th Five-Year Plan.

 

Prof. Lin is the honorary dean of the NSD and dean of both the Institute of New Structural Economics and the Institute of South-South Cooperation and Development at PKU. In an interview with People’s Daily online, he used such key words as confidence, opportunity, and responsibility to comment on the speech by President Xi at the symposium. He spoke highly of the accurate judgment and clear thinking of the senior leadership, and had full confidence in China’s growth potential and bright prospect in the period of its 14th Five-Year Plan. As for scholars in the economic and social fields, Prof. Lin believed “we should not fall short of the opportunities offered by this era for theoretical innovation.”

 

Prof. Lin said that in its current stage of development, China enjoys dual advantages: late-comer advantage and ‘change-lane-and-overtake’ advantage. By 2030, China still possesses annual growth potential of 8% on the supply side, and how much of it can be realized depends on the demand side. The sluggish external demand notwithstanding, the large domestic market will offer abundant thrust. The dual circulation, coupled with key factors such as technology and human capital as well as institutional advantages, can lead to stable growth of 5-6% per year.

 

By 2025, China will have crossed the threshold of USD12,736 in capita income and emerge as a high-income nation. Based on market exchange rates, China’s economic volume will surpass that of the US in 2030 or so and become the world’s largest. By 2050, China’s per capita GDP will reach half that of the US, while its economic output might be twice that of the latter. Technologically, China will be on a par with the US at that time.

 

As its economy surging to be the largest in the world in 2030 or so, China’s phenomena and problems will be the most important ones in the world. Therefore, theories born out of such phenomena and problems will be the most influential ones in the world, comparable to the theories developed in the UK and the US when they were respectively the largest economic body.