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Lei Xiaoyan: Tackle the Greying Issue

Oct 29-2020   



 

Statistics show that over the past several decades, the same trend has been broadly followed by three factors in China: the ratio of working-age population, savings rate, and capital formation rate. In 2012, the working-age population started to go down, so did the other two factors. New challenges will arise for the Chinese economy as the downward trend of the three factors persist into the future, said Prof. Lei Xiaoyan of the NSD.

 

She spoke at the 147th edition of Langrun Policy Talk, an influential symposium by the NSD, which centered on a new report jointly compiled by the NSD and the Brookings Institution. Prof. Lei and Bai Chen of Renmin University penned the part on China’s aging for the report titled China 2049: Economic Challenges of a Rising Power. Prof. Lei heads the Institute of Healthy Aging and Development Research at PKU.

 

China’s population is expected to peak out in 2029, but the working-age portion has been in consecutive decline since 2012. Consequently, the dependency ratio has been rising. In 2049, senior residents will approximately number 400 million, or 28.9% of the total population, higher than the projected 25.7% of the OECD countries.

 

Of the working-age people, more will be in the 55-64 age group in 2049. At 27% of total workers, this group is largely eligible for retirement according to current policies, which could further strain labor supply. Therefore, Prof. Lei called for a more flexible retirement system that takes into account the different situations in rural and urban areas as well as across industries.

 

The population dividend can still be reaped but the focus should shift to the quality, not quantity, of the workers, said Prof. Lei. Moreover, more support should be provided to families so that they are not deterred from the challenges of having a baby. So far, the abolition of the single child policy has created limited impetus for more babies.

Lei Xiaoyan: Tackle the Greying Issue

Oct 29-2020   



 

Statistics show that over the past several decades, the same trend has been broadly followed by three factors in China: the ratio of working-age population, savings rate, and capital formation rate. In 2012, the working-age population started to go down, so did the other two factors. New challenges will arise for the Chinese economy as the downward trend of the three factors persist into the future, said Prof. Lei Xiaoyan of the NSD.

 

She spoke at the 147th edition of Langrun Policy Talk, an influential symposium by the NSD, which centered on a new report jointly compiled by the NSD and the Brookings Institution. Prof. Lei and Bai Chen of Renmin University penned the part on China’s aging for the report titled China 2049: Economic Challenges of a Rising Power. Prof. Lei heads the Institute of Healthy Aging and Development Research at PKU.

 

China’s population is expected to peak out in 2029, but the working-age portion has been in consecutive decline since 2012. Consequently, the dependency ratio has been rising. In 2049, senior residents will approximately number 400 million, or 28.9% of the total population, higher than the projected 25.7% of the OECD countries.

 

Of the working-age people, more will be in the 55-64 age group in 2049. At 27% of total workers, this group is largely eligible for retirement according to current policies, which could further strain labor supply. Therefore, Prof. Lei called for a more flexible retirement system that takes into account the different situations in rural and urban areas as well as across industries.

 

The population dividend can still be reaped but the focus should shift to the quality, not quantity, of the workers, said Prof. Lei. Moreover, more support should be provided to families so that they are not deterred from the challenges of having a baby. So far, the abolition of the single child policy has created limited impetus for more babies.