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Economic Growth and Public Health in the Pandemic

Jan 05-2021   



How the pandemic might bend the growth trajectory of different countries has been a consequential issue of global concern. Prof. Liu Guo’en of the NSD addressed the topic and more in a recent seminar. He is PKU Bo Ya Distinguished Professor and a member of the national Covid-19 expert group.

 

By December 23, 2020, a total of 78 million people across the world had been diagnosed with Covid-19, meaning an infection rate of 10,000 per 1 million residents. Meanwhile, 1.73 million people had succumbed to the virus and lost their lives, with a death rate of 222 per 1 million residents. In both measures, East and South Asia had fared the best, with China in the lead; North America and Europe had suffered the most; Africa had been in between the two groups.

 

The variance in performance might be due to three factors: Central governments’ decision making and top-down execution; value and lifestyle preferences of different nations; and the interactions between different virus strains and the immune systems of different ethnicities.

 

The pandemic is bringing the world economy to its knees. Global GDP in 2020 is expected to contract by 4.4% year on year, largely a result of consumers’ being homebound and businesses’ being disrupted most of the time. Whereas the 2008 Financial Crisis wreaked havoc on durable and non-durable goods consumption and spared service consumption, the pandemic had hit the service consumption hardest. The findings, part of a research by a Harvard University professor, offer valuable insight for policymakers working on economic recovery.

 

The Chinese economy has been taking on structural upgrade over the last few years. Notably, its service sector reached 54% of its total economic volume in 2019. Given the less tradable nature of services, China has adopted Dual Circulation to expand its domestic market. Another reason for the policy is the mounting difficulty of making further inroad into export.

 

Among eight major categories of consumption tallied by the National Statistics Bureau, only healthcare expenditure maintained an upward growth trend from 2015 to 2019, if housing was not taken into consideration. Globally, it’s an undeniable fact that the healthcare market grows at a faster clip than the economy in all countries.

 

Resorting to scientific methods would make it more accurate and effective in fighting the pandemic, said Prof. Liu. Non-medicinal measures based on targeted research into individual risk types can reap a higher cost-benefit.

 

Economic Growth and Public Health in the Pandemic

Jan 05-2021   



How the pandemic might bend the growth trajectory of different countries has been a consequential issue of global concern. Prof. Liu Guo’en of the NSD addressed the topic and more in a recent seminar. He is PKU Bo Ya Distinguished Professor and a member of the national Covid-19 expert group.

 

By December 23, 2020, a total of 78 million people across the world had been diagnosed with Covid-19, meaning an infection rate of 10,000 per 1 million residents. Meanwhile, 1.73 million people had succumbed to the virus and lost their lives, with a death rate of 222 per 1 million residents. In both measures, East and South Asia had fared the best, with China in the lead; North America and Europe had suffered the most; Africa had been in between the two groups.

 

The variance in performance might be due to three factors: Central governments’ decision making and top-down execution; value and lifestyle preferences of different nations; and the interactions between different virus strains and the immune systems of different ethnicities.

 

The pandemic is bringing the world economy to its knees. Global GDP in 2020 is expected to contract by 4.4% year on year, largely a result of consumers’ being homebound and businesses’ being disrupted most of the time. Whereas the 2008 Financial Crisis wreaked havoc on durable and non-durable goods consumption and spared service consumption, the pandemic had hit the service consumption hardest. The findings, part of a research by a Harvard University professor, offer valuable insight for policymakers working on economic recovery.

 

The Chinese economy has been taking on structural upgrade over the last few years. Notably, its service sector reached 54% of its total economic volume in 2019. Given the less tradable nature of services, China has adopted Dual Circulation to expand its domestic market. Another reason for the policy is the mounting difficulty of making further inroad into export.

 

Among eight major categories of consumption tallied by the National Statistics Bureau, only healthcare expenditure maintained an upward growth trend from 2015 to 2019, if housing was not taken into consideration. Globally, it’s an undeniable fact that the healthcare market grows at a faster clip than the economy in all countries.

 

Resorting to scientific methods would make it more accurate and effective in fighting the pandemic, said Prof. Liu. Non-medicinal measures based on targeted research into individual risk types can reap a higher cost-benefit.