Zhang Junni: An Estimate of China’s Population in 50 Years

May 27-2021   

Depending on different scenarios, China’s population could vary from 1.042 billion to less than one billion in 2070, according to a research by Zhang Junni, NSD’s Associate Professor of Statistics.

In comparison, its population reached 1.41 billion by November 1st, 2020, as revealed by the 7th national census.

Prof. Zhang shared her findings at the 152nd version of Langrun Policy Talk, a signature forum of the NSD, which zoomed in on China’s aging population and economic growth.

Major parameters used in her research are mortality and fertility. Immigrants and emigrants, both negligibly tiny in number, are not taken into calculation.

Her research also shows that even in the high-fertility scenario, by 2055 those aged 65 and above, at 13.5% of the total population now, could exceed Japan’s current elderly ratio (at 28.7% in 2020), while children aged 0-14 could dip below Japan’s current level of 12.3%. Both would pose severe challenges, says Prof. Zhang.

Of the senior residents, those aged 60-69 currently make up the majority. However, by 2070, their share of the elderly population could drop to one third, with the remaining two thirds evenly split between those aged 70-79 and those of 80 and above.

Prof. Zhang calls for more respect for the elderly and more care for the children. To improve fertility rate, childbearing must become a source of happiness for prospective mothers and their babies, for economic incentives might not be the panacea.