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Avoiding Ultra-Low Fertility Trap Meaningful to National Development

Mar 02-2022   



 

If China builds itself into a birth-friendly society, the resultant population trend will be much more conducive to its economic and social development over the next four decades, according to a commentary by Prof. Zeng Yi of the NSD in Fudan Financial Review. He’s Honorary Director of PKU Center for Healthy Aging and Development and a member of The Third World Academy of Sciences.

 

Despite policies intended to spur fertility, the number of China’s newborn babies has taken a dive since 2016, so has its net population growth since 2017, which reached 480,000 in 2021 compared to 2.04 million in 2020. The low fertility rate will soon drag the population into negative growth, observes Prof. Zeng.

 

To what extent will the population trajectory impact on the total population quantity, the labor force, aging, national development as well as family well-being? Prof. Zeng tests three hypotheses and finds that a birth-friendly society offers the best solution to counter the negative effects of a shrinking population.

 

The successful construction of a birth-friendly society would result in 52.99 million and 75.16 million more people in 2050 and 2060 respectively than a less friendly one. The contrast would be even starker with the least friendly scenario: 73.33 million and 103.5 million more. However, as for working age population, the three scenarios might all see a reduction of 108 million from 2020 to 2040. Thence, the best-case scenario would be better positioned to cope with labor shortages but not without serious challenges.

 

Prof. Zeng believes that avoiding an ultra-low fertility trap will have much bearing on the destiny of the nation. He calls on the whole society to pay full attention to the issue and implement relevant policies, including eradicating job discrimination against child-bearing women, giving tax exemptions and birth allowances to couples who have two or three children, and training medical and pre-school specialists.

 

Avoiding Ultra-Low Fertility Trap Meaningful to National Development

Mar 02-2022   



 

If China builds itself into a birth-friendly society, the resultant population trend will be much more conducive to its economic and social development over the next four decades, according to a commentary by Prof. Zeng Yi of the NSD in Fudan Financial Review. He’s Honorary Director of PKU Center for Healthy Aging and Development and a member of The Third World Academy of Sciences.

 

Despite policies intended to spur fertility, the number of China’s newborn babies has taken a dive since 2016, so has its net population growth since 2017, which reached 480,000 in 2021 compared to 2.04 million in 2020. The low fertility rate will soon drag the population into negative growth, observes Prof. Zeng.

 

To what extent will the population trajectory impact on the total population quantity, the labor force, aging, national development as well as family well-being? Prof. Zeng tests three hypotheses and finds that a birth-friendly society offers the best solution to counter the negative effects of a shrinking population.

 

The successful construction of a birth-friendly society would result in 52.99 million and 75.16 million more people in 2050 and 2060 respectively than a less friendly one. The contrast would be even starker with the least friendly scenario: 73.33 million and 103.5 million more. However, as for working age population, the three scenarios might all see a reduction of 108 million from 2020 to 2040. Thence, the best-case scenario would be better positioned to cope with labor shortages but not without serious challenges.

 

Prof. Zeng believes that avoiding an ultra-low fertility trap will have much bearing on the destiny of the nation. He calls on the whole society to pay full attention to the issue and implement relevant policies, including eradicating job discrimination against child-bearing women, giving tax exemptions and birth allowances to couples who have two or three children, and training medical and pre-school specialists.