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Laboring through the Pandemic

Oct 28-2022   



China is confronted with the third wave of employment challenge in its reform and opening-up era, and it will have to undertake a range of maneuvers to address the root causes, said Prof. Lu Feng of the NSD in a recent lecture.

 

Since its breakout, the pandemic has continued to put the Chinese economy in a high-pressure environment. In early to mid 2020, nationwide anti-pandemic mobilization and implementation of macro-policies managed to deal with the onslaught of the pandemic and push the economy back up. In the following one year, monetary and fiscal policies showed signs of tightening, which coupled with multiple regulatory policies for internet platforms, real estate and private tuition, caused the economic growth to peak out in January 2021 and piled on downward pressure in the second half of the year. From September to October last year, some policies were retooled with the primary goal of stabilizing growth, which by January to February 2022 had borne positive results. However, the pandemic flared up in Shanghai and some other regions in March and April, sending the economy in a drastic fall in the second quarter.

The impact of the economic performance on the labor market can be observed in several ways. Firstly, as the economic growth slowed from 6.1% in 2019 to 2.3% in 2020, the number of migrant workers dropped by 5.3 million in 2020, the single largest decline since 1980s. In 2021, thanks to 8.1% growth, migrant workers saw their number jump by 6.9 million, far higher than the 3.4 million five-year average prior to the pandemic. Secondly, urban employment was quick to recover in the second half of 2020 and continued the solid trend into the first half of 2021, before being plunged again into the shadow of downward economic pressure.

 

Thirdly, the 16-24 year olds were particularly dogged by unemployment. In June and July, their jobless rate hit record highs of 19.3% and 19.9% respectively. A surfeit of university graduates has had to contend with intermittent economic contractions and fluctuations.

 

The labor situations can be expected to improve as the pandemic relents and economic recovery picks up. However, if the economic growth mechanism and format didn’t undergo substantive change amid the pandemic, then the pressure on the labor market, especially on youth employment, could not be up-ended. To rise above such challenges, the key is to fully unleash growth potential through adjusting and optimizing pandemic control measures, boosting the growth functions of macro and structural policies, and choreographing adjustments to and breakthroughs in institutions, advised Prof. Lu.

Laboring through the Pandemic

Oct 28-2022   



China is confronted with the third wave of employment challenge in its reform and opening-up era, and it will have to undertake a range of maneuvers to address the root causes, said Prof. Lu Feng of the NSD in a recent lecture.

 

Since its breakout, the pandemic has continued to put the Chinese economy in a high-pressure environment. In early to mid 2020, nationwide anti-pandemic mobilization and implementation of macro-policies managed to deal with the onslaught of the pandemic and push the economy back up. In the following one year, monetary and fiscal policies showed signs of tightening, which coupled with multiple regulatory policies for internet platforms, real estate and private tuition, caused the economic growth to peak out in January 2021 and piled on downward pressure in the second half of the year. From September to October last year, some policies were retooled with the primary goal of stabilizing growth, which by January to February 2022 had borne positive results. However, the pandemic flared up in Shanghai and some other regions in March and April, sending the economy in a drastic fall in the second quarter.

The impact of the economic performance on the labor market can be observed in several ways. Firstly, as the economic growth slowed from 6.1% in 2019 to 2.3% in 2020, the number of migrant workers dropped by 5.3 million in 2020, the single largest decline since 1980s. In 2021, thanks to 8.1% growth, migrant workers saw their number jump by 6.9 million, far higher than the 3.4 million five-year average prior to the pandemic. Secondly, urban employment was quick to recover in the second half of 2020 and continued the solid trend into the first half of 2021, before being plunged again into the shadow of downward economic pressure.

 

Thirdly, the 16-24 year olds were particularly dogged by unemployment. In June and July, their jobless rate hit record highs of 19.3% and 19.9% respectively. A surfeit of university graduates has had to contend with intermittent economic contractions and fluctuations.

 

The labor situations can be expected to improve as the pandemic relents and economic recovery picks up. However, if the economic growth mechanism and format didn’t undergo substantive change amid the pandemic, then the pressure on the labor market, especially on youth employment, could not be up-ended. To rise above such challenges, the key is to fully unleash growth potential through adjusting and optimizing pandemic control measures, boosting the growth functions of macro and structural policies, and choreographing adjustments to and breakthroughs in institutions, advised Prof. Lu.