Highlights of ‘Double-Carbon’ Report
Feb 20-2023
A number of positive factors entail that China won’t have to achieve its ‘double-carbon’ goals ‘at all costs’, said Prof. Xu Jintao, PKU Bo Ya Distinguished Professor, NSD Professor of Economics, and Director of PKU Environment and Energy Economics Institute, in the 7th National Development Forum.
In his keynote speech, Prof. Xu presented highlights of a report on China’s double-carbon undertakings, which is undergoing amendments to get ready for publishing. The report is part of NSD’s routine efforts dedicating its scholars to the analysis of China’s economic and social development.
Prof. Xu said that for methodology, the research team mainly refers to mainstream scientific research results, including IPCC reports and the achievement of Chinese scientists. Using existing research results, both international and Chinese ones, as the foundation, the project also takes advantage of the NSD’s forte in macro-economics, health economics, platform economy, and development economics, among others, to conduct in-depth research and analysis of policies on climate change.
One of the key conclusions of the report is that against the backdrop of ongoing structural transitions and economic growth, China won’t have to pay an exorbitant price to reach its peak carbon target. In fact, China’s carbon dioxide emissions flatted out after 2013 and 2014, and have even declined in recent years. It is estimated that both the population and urbanization growth rate will slide in the next ten years, and the continuous adjustment to economic structure will bring about turning points in carbon emissions.
The report also seeks to shed light on the ways to reach carbon neutrality while ensuring moderate economic growth after peak carbon is hit at 10 to 12 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions. The answer lies in technological advancement, energy structure transition, and consumption structure transition, said Prof. Xu. To bring about structural changes, major transitions in policy and mechanism are indispensable; therefore, it is imperative to formulate targeted policy and perfect mechanism design through trials.
Over the last 30 years, environmental protection has largely resorted to administrative orders and movement-styled execution. To reach ‘double-carbon’ goals, a long-term mechanism should take center stage, in which economic and policy measures are systematically adopted, including environment tax, carbon tax, carbon trade, bidding for power grids, congestion fee, and so on. The overriding goal is to lower costs to the largest possible extent while navigating a balance between economic development and reduction in carbon dioxide emissions.
