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Prof. Ma Jingjing: Consumer Confidence Rises but the Young’s Lags Behind

Jan 08-2024   



In the second half of 2023, China’s consumer confidence registered various degrees of increase across different consumption categories and age groups, and measures should continue to be adopted to effectively push economic development, stabilize employment, and spur income growth, said Prof. Ma Jingjing at MBA Lectern, a hallmark event of BiMBA Business School. She is NSD Associate Professor of Management, Deputy Dean of BiMBA Business School, and Director of PKU Research Center for Female Leadership.

 

Prof. Ma’s speech tracked consumer index in China over the last five years and particularly zoomed in on the second half of 2023. She used the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) developed by the NSD, which relies on nationally representative samples and big data on public sentiment to reflect and predict China’s macro-economic metrics and consumption.

 

Since 2019, Chinese consumers have consistently demonstrated higher one-year confidence than current confidence, and higher five-year confidence than one-year confidence, which indicates their belief in an ever-improving life, said Prof. Ma. The CDI fluctuated during the pandemic, and declined in the second quarter of 2023, before picking up in the third and fourth quarters of the same year.

 

For the upcoming one year, consumer confidence went up in housing, medical care, education, food, travel, daily recreations, and shopping, said Prof. Ma. The confidence in expected spending on housing was the lowest among all categories. In terms of age groups, those aged 45 and above were the fastest in claiming back confidence, while young people were yet to regain confidence in most consumption areas.

 

Prof. Ma found that consumer confidence is largely affected by confidence in jobs, incomes, and China’s overall economy. When welding consumer confidence in China’s economy and that in jobs and incomes into one single index, it could be seen that consumers’ future expectation remained stable and lacked an evident rise.

 

Are Chinese consumers happy? From cognitive and emotional dimensions, Prof. Ma found that their overall feel of life over the last few years was relatively stable, and their emotional wellbeing was recovering following some fluctuations. Notably, those below 24 years old experienced an obvious decline in happiness in 2023.

 

A major difference between Chinese and American consumers is that the former is prevention focused while the latter is promotion focused. Without income and job safeguards, consumption can hardly be sustainably stimulated in China, said Prof. Ma. The Central Economic Work Conference stressed the importance of managing the relationships between macro data and micro feelings and enhancing the confidence on individual levels. Prof. Ma called for effective measures for job and income creations as well as increased support for the young.

Prof. Ma Jingjing: Consumer Confidence Rises but the Young’s Lags Behind

Jan 08-2024   



In the second half of 2023, China’s consumer confidence registered various degrees of increase across different consumption categories and age groups, and measures should continue to be adopted to effectively push economic development, stabilize employment, and spur income growth, said Prof. Ma Jingjing at MBA Lectern, a hallmark event of BiMBA Business School. She is NSD Associate Professor of Management, Deputy Dean of BiMBA Business School, and Director of PKU Research Center for Female Leadership.

 

Prof. Ma’s speech tracked consumer index in China over the last five years and particularly zoomed in on the second half of 2023. She used the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) developed by the NSD, which relies on nationally representative samples and big data on public sentiment to reflect and predict China’s macro-economic metrics and consumption.

 

Since 2019, Chinese consumers have consistently demonstrated higher one-year confidence than current confidence, and higher five-year confidence than one-year confidence, which indicates their belief in an ever-improving life, said Prof. Ma. The CDI fluctuated during the pandemic, and declined in the second quarter of 2023, before picking up in the third and fourth quarters of the same year.

 

For the upcoming one year, consumer confidence went up in housing, medical care, education, food, travel, daily recreations, and shopping, said Prof. Ma. The confidence in expected spending on housing was the lowest among all categories. In terms of age groups, those aged 45 and above were the fastest in claiming back confidence, while young people were yet to regain confidence in most consumption areas.

 

Prof. Ma found that consumer confidence is largely affected by confidence in jobs, incomes, and China’s overall economy. When welding consumer confidence in China’s economy and that in jobs and incomes into one single index, it could be seen that consumers’ future expectation remained stable and lacked an evident rise.

 

Are Chinese consumers happy? From cognitive and emotional dimensions, Prof. Ma found that their overall feel of life over the last few years was relatively stable, and their emotional wellbeing was recovering following some fluctuations. Notably, those below 24 years old experienced an obvious decline in happiness in 2023.

 

A major difference between Chinese and American consumers is that the former is prevention focused while the latter is promotion focused. Without income and job safeguards, consumption can hardly be sustainably stimulated in China, said Prof. Ma. The Central Economic Work Conference stressed the importance of managing the relationships between macro data and micro feelings and enhancing the confidence on individual levels. Prof. Ma called for effective measures for job and income creations as well as increased support for the young.