Prof. Justin Yifu Lin: China Continues to be Major Contributor to Global Economy
Mar 08-2024
On March 4, Prof. Justin Yifu Lin answered media questions on population aging, foreign direct investment, and consumption. He is a member of the Standing Committee of the 14th Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), Dean of Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University, and Honorary Dean of National School of Development at Peking University.
He said that in 2023, China remained the country with the fastest market expansion and the most opportunities in the world as the global economy sputtered and demand declined. He was confident that China is set to maintain a growth rate above 5% in 2024, thus continuing to make important contribution to the world economy.
On population aging, Prof. Lin said that it is not a ‘black swan’ event, adding that effective labor counts more for economic growth than sheer labor force size. He pointed out that currently the size of incoming labor force is twice that of retirees. This, coupled with the continual emergence of new-quality productive force, will push the country’s productivity to steadily increase, leading to more promising development trends.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s working age population receive 11.05 years of education on average. Now that the country tops the world in the total size of talents, technology human resource, and research and development personnel, its population dividend is fast evolving to talent dividend.
On FDI, Prof. Lin believed that China offers strong consumption and a vast market, as well as huge room for industrial upgrading and technological innovation. So long as China works on unlocking growth potential through such measures as free trade pilot zones, tariff reduction, and establishing negative lists, foreign investors will continue to favor China as an investment destination.
The just finished Spring Festival holiday registered dynamic consumption, including 474 million domestic travels, up by 19% compared with 2019. For consumption potential to further materialize, Prof. Lin stressed the need to achieve constant income increase, which relies on relentless technological innovation and industrial upgrading. This in turn necessitates financing and policy environment, he said.
