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Prof. Zhang Dandan: 20 Professions Susceptible to AIGC Substitution

Mar 12-2024   



In a recent media interview, Prof. Zhang Dandan analyzed the impact of AI-generated content (AIGC) technology and low fertility rate on China’s human capital. She is NSD Professor of Economics.

 

Unlike past technological advances that mostly saw one technology substituting a competing one, AIGC technology replaces human brain, said Prof. Zhang. In other words, it used to be the case that when a technology was combined with human capital, a higher productivity came about as a result of the so-called ‘factor enhancement’. But now ChatGPT renders some simple mental labor unnecesary, causing ‘factor substitution’. It is also noteworthy that substitution is no longer partial; it sweeps through the whole production process.

 

In a research based on randomly selecting over one million pieces of data between January 2018 and April 2023 from a leading recruitment site, Prof. Zhang and her team shed light on professions that are most susceptible and resistant to ChatGPT substitution. They found that the most vulnerable ones are white-collar, such as finance, customer service, accounting, and law. Blue-collar jobs, on the other hand, are less exposed to the onslaught. Housekeepers, logistics workers and technical workers can take some comfort.

 

New versions of ChapGPT as well as similar Chinese ones have cropped up since her research was completed. Therefore, Prof. Zhang believed that more research is needed to evaluate the substitution impact as common folks start to use and learn more about the technology. Even so, Prof. Zhang was concerned about the digital gap caused by AIGC. She said that efforts should be made to identify those at a disadvantage when it comes to AIGC and make interventions to help them. She was also concerned that the digital divide will expand between the US and China, as more Americans than Chinese learn to use the technology. She called for making platforms like ChatGPT more accessible to ordinary people.

 

There is an upside to AIGC: it is offered by large platforms like ChatGPT or Baidu’s Yiyan. This makes it feasible to analyze user profiles and habits, as well as get to know who haven’t used AIGC yet. In this way, more target policy interventions can be made to help people become users or assist existing users to expand their skillset, said Prof. Zhang.

 

For the Chinese economy, human capital means more than sheer population size, pointed out Prof. Zhang. In other words, as an economic drive force, ‘talent dividend’ outweighs ‘population dividend’. The unexpected emergence of AIGC is bound to push educational reform because certain knowledge and skills will have declining importance while others will ascend. It is a challenge facing the whole world, as labor demand polarizes: strong demand for both high-end talents and low-skilled workers, but continuously weakening demand for talents in the middle rung. Current education systems tend to produce the middling ones and should therefore be reformed.

 

China has released some measures to boost fertility rate, but with no obvious effects. Aversion to childbearing is mainly due to the huge costs of bringing children up. Prof. Zhang also drew attention to the annual figure of 10 million abortions and the underlying reasons such as inability to get Hu Kou (residence permit) or pregnancy before marriage (illegal in China). She proposed weighing the tradeoffs: if fertility is prioritized, perhaps childbearing out of wedlock should be legalized.

 

She also highlighted the impact of childbearing on women’s career and called for tackling statistical discriminations that treat women and men differently due to their productive discrepancies. Citing Nobel Laurette Claudia Goldin’s research, Prof. Zhang advocated taking practical measures to help women retain competitiveness in the workplace. Women in flexible work can benefit both their families and companies.

Prof. Zhang Dandan: 20 Professions Susceptible to AIGC Substitution

Mar 12-2024   



In a recent media interview, Prof. Zhang Dandan analyzed the impact of AI-generated content (AIGC) technology and low fertility rate on China’s human capital. She is NSD Professor of Economics.

 

Unlike past technological advances that mostly saw one technology substituting a competing one, AIGC technology replaces human brain, said Prof. Zhang. In other words, it used to be the case that when a technology was combined with human capital, a higher productivity came about as a result of the so-called ‘factor enhancement’. But now ChatGPT renders some simple mental labor unnecesary, causing ‘factor substitution’. It is also noteworthy that substitution is no longer partial; it sweeps through the whole production process.

 

In a research based on randomly selecting over one million pieces of data between January 2018 and April 2023 from a leading recruitment site, Prof. Zhang and her team shed light on professions that are most susceptible and resistant to ChatGPT substitution. They found that the most vulnerable ones are white-collar, such as finance, customer service, accounting, and law. Blue-collar jobs, on the other hand, are less exposed to the onslaught. Housekeepers, logistics workers and technical workers can take some comfort.

 

New versions of ChapGPT as well as similar Chinese ones have cropped up since her research was completed. Therefore, Prof. Zhang believed that more research is needed to evaluate the substitution impact as common folks start to use and learn more about the technology. Even so, Prof. Zhang was concerned about the digital gap caused by AIGC. She said that efforts should be made to identify those at a disadvantage when it comes to AIGC and make interventions to help them. She was also concerned that the digital divide will expand between the US and China, as more Americans than Chinese learn to use the technology. She called for making platforms like ChatGPT more accessible to ordinary people.

 

There is an upside to AIGC: it is offered by large platforms like ChatGPT or Baidu’s Yiyan. This makes it feasible to analyze user profiles and habits, as well as get to know who haven’t used AIGC yet. In this way, more target policy interventions can be made to help people become users or assist existing users to expand their skillset, said Prof. Zhang.

 

For the Chinese economy, human capital means more than sheer population size, pointed out Prof. Zhang. In other words, as an economic drive force, ‘talent dividend’ outweighs ‘population dividend’. The unexpected emergence of AIGC is bound to push educational reform because certain knowledge and skills will have declining importance while others will ascend. It is a challenge facing the whole world, as labor demand polarizes: strong demand for both high-end talents and low-skilled workers, but continuously weakening demand for talents in the middle rung. Current education systems tend to produce the middling ones and should therefore be reformed.

 

China has released some measures to boost fertility rate, but with no obvious effects. Aversion to childbearing is mainly due to the huge costs of bringing children up. Prof. Zhang also drew attention to the annual figure of 10 million abortions and the underlying reasons such as inability to get Hu Kou (residence permit) or pregnancy before marriage (illegal in China). She proposed weighing the tradeoffs: if fertility is prioritized, perhaps childbearing out of wedlock should be legalized.

 

She also highlighted the impact of childbearing on women’s career and called for tackling statistical discriminations that treat women and men differently due to their productive discrepancies. Citing Nobel Laurette Claudia Goldin’s research, Prof. Zhang advocated taking practical measures to help women retain competitiveness in the workplace. Women in flexible work can benefit both their families and companies.