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CEO Parses Messages from Two Sessions and Unveils Plans for NSD’s 30-Year Anniversary

Mar 19-2024   



The 68th China Economic Observer (CEO), a hallmark event of the NSD, was held on March 13 and centered on analyzing the messages from the ‘Two Sessions’. A list of activities was also revealed to celebrate the 30-year anniversary of the NSD. The ‘Two Sessions’ refer to the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), which were held from March 5-11 and March 4-10 this year respectively.

 

Prof. Huang Yiping, the newly appointed Dean of the NSD, unveiled the bilingual logo of the anniversary and released three major series of themed activities throughout the year. Besides presenting the frontiers of knowledge, the activities will focus on showcasing the latest research results of NSD faculty and scholars of other institutions. Concurrent to lectures, seminars, and arts and sports activities will be invitations to all NSD teachers and students and people in all walks of life to submit essays and invitations to government agencies, enterprises and media for collaboration. He welcomed all individuals and organizations that have worked with the NSD to put their experiences to paper or build partnership with the NSD.

 

As keynote speaker for the 68th China Economic Observer, Prof. Justin Yifu Lin said that China has maintained an annual growth rate of 8.9% over the last 45 years in the reform and open-up era, and such a miracle can be traced to its incremental dual-track reform. This happens despite the persistence of the so-called ‘China Collapse Theory’. As for current economic challenges, he said that policy will be adjusted accordingly as the economy undergoes cyclical fluctuations. He also pointed out the importance of getting to the causes of such challenges, such as the impact of external financial crisis. He then answered questions on the Chinese economy, the real estate market and the financial industry.

 

Dr. Xu Gao, NSD Adjunct Professor and Chief Economist and Managing Director of BOC International, analyzed the causes of China’s insufficient consumption and proposed strategies to develop the economy in mid- to long term. The lack of consumption can be attributed to three reasons: the national income doesn’t sufficiently flow to consumers; corporate investment behavior is not adequately constrained by the consumer department and thus results in over-investment; and the Chinese economy misses an effective market mechanism to adjust consumption and savings. Based on demand constraints, he said that the strategy for long-term economic development should be adjusting income distribution and increasing household consumption; the strategy for short-term development is using investment to create demand. He cautioned against letting the economy slide down.

 

Dr. Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist of Yuekai Securities and President of its research institute, zoomed in on China’s current fiscal conditions and prospects. He said that weak growth in fiscal intakes and negative growth in land-sale revenues are contending with sharp rise in outlays for people’s welfare, positive growth in infrastructure construction, and fast uptick in social security outlays and interest payments. He believed that there is still room for fiscal maneuvers but the room is shrinking, and called for putting China’s fiscal issues and its economy in a comprehensive, dialectical, and long-term perspective.

 

Prof. Lu Feng of the NSD talked about current wave of overcapacity and its impact on the external trade environment. He found that overcapacity is taking grip of forefront industries like petrochemical raw materials, certain types of semi-conductors, new-energy cars, traction batteries, and some industrial departments. Such industries exert extensive influence and their products are highly tradable. As such, he said that overcapacity is not only a domestic issue but also one with ramifications for international trade and external economic environments. He believed that expanding supply capacity and competitiveness is in line with China’s growing economic power; at the same time, strengthening international cooperation will be conducive to addressing external constraints.

 

 

 

 

CEO Parses Messages from Two Sessions and Unveils Plans for NSD’s 30-Year Anniversary

Mar 19-2024   



The 68th China Economic Observer (CEO), a hallmark event of the NSD, was held on March 13 and centered on analyzing the messages from the ‘Two Sessions’. A list of activities was also revealed to celebrate the 30-year anniversary of the NSD. The ‘Two Sessions’ refer to the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), which were held from March 5-11 and March 4-10 this year respectively.

 

Prof. Huang Yiping, the newly appointed Dean of the NSD, unveiled the bilingual logo of the anniversary and released three major series of themed activities throughout the year. Besides presenting the frontiers of knowledge, the activities will focus on showcasing the latest research results of NSD faculty and scholars of other institutions. Concurrent to lectures, seminars, and arts and sports activities will be invitations to all NSD teachers and students and people in all walks of life to submit essays and invitations to government agencies, enterprises and media for collaboration. He welcomed all individuals and organizations that have worked with the NSD to put their experiences to paper or build partnership with the NSD.

 

As keynote speaker for the 68th China Economic Observer, Prof. Justin Yifu Lin said that China has maintained an annual growth rate of 8.9% over the last 45 years in the reform and open-up era, and such a miracle can be traced to its incremental dual-track reform. This happens despite the persistence of the so-called ‘China Collapse Theory’. As for current economic challenges, he said that policy will be adjusted accordingly as the economy undergoes cyclical fluctuations. He also pointed out the importance of getting to the causes of such challenges, such as the impact of external financial crisis. He then answered questions on the Chinese economy, the real estate market and the financial industry.

 

Dr. Xu Gao, NSD Adjunct Professor and Chief Economist and Managing Director of BOC International, analyzed the causes of China’s insufficient consumption and proposed strategies to develop the economy in mid- to long term. The lack of consumption can be attributed to three reasons: the national income doesn’t sufficiently flow to consumers; corporate investment behavior is not adequately constrained by the consumer department and thus results in over-investment; and the Chinese economy misses an effective market mechanism to adjust consumption and savings. Based on demand constraints, he said that the strategy for long-term economic development should be adjusting income distribution and increasing household consumption; the strategy for short-term development is using investment to create demand. He cautioned against letting the economy slide down.

 

Dr. Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist of Yuekai Securities and President of its research institute, zoomed in on China’s current fiscal conditions and prospects. He said that weak growth in fiscal intakes and negative growth in land-sale revenues are contending with sharp rise in outlays for people’s welfare, positive growth in infrastructure construction, and fast uptick in social security outlays and interest payments. He believed that there is still room for fiscal maneuvers but the room is shrinking, and called for putting China’s fiscal issues and its economy in a comprehensive, dialectical, and long-term perspective.

 

Prof. Lu Feng of the NSD talked about current wave of overcapacity and its impact on the external trade environment. He found that overcapacity is taking grip of forefront industries like petrochemical raw materials, certain types of semi-conductors, new-energy cars, traction batteries, and some industrial departments. Such industries exert extensive influence and their products are highly tradable. As such, he said that overcapacity is not only a domestic issue but also one with ramifications for international trade and external economic environments. He believed that expanding supply capacity and competitiveness is in line with China’s growing economic power; at the same time, strengthening international cooperation will be conducive to addressing external constraints.