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Prof. Lei Xiaoyan: Research and Policy Considerations on Population Aging

May 31-2024   



At the Academic Afternoon Tea (AAT) on May 27, Prof. Lei Xiaoyan shared her thoughts on the topic Population Aging: Academic Research and Policy Contemplations. She is PKU Boya Distinguished Professor, Secretary of NSD CCP Committee, Director of NSD Academic Committee, Professor of Economics, Director of PKU Center for Healthy Aging and Development Studies, and Ministry of Education’s Changjiang Scholar Distinguished Professor of Economics. The event was hosted by Prof. Zhang Dandan of the NSD. AAT features lectures aimed at promoting academic exchange and collaboration among NSD faculty members and students.

 

Prof. Lei said that the world has seen a decline in the proportion of children to the global population since the 1960s and a surge in that of elderly people since 2010. The two trends can be attributed to the continued slide in global fertility rate and a marked rise in life expectancy. Notably, on these two metrics China has outpaced the world average by a big margin, which underscores the magnitude of China’s population aging issue.

 

Against this backdrop, Prof. Lei proposed the concept of ‘healthy aging’, which seeks to highlight the significance of health span, rather than life span, for delineating the elderly’s life quality. Therein arises a key question: how far away is China from the goal of realizing healthy aging? Prof. Lei cited China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), which found that a high percentage of China’s senior residents suffer incapacitation, which escalates as they age and is particularly evident among those above 70 years old (especially females). The incapacitation ratio forms the tip of the iceberg that points to the importance of predicting expected healthy lifespan. The gap between healthy lifespan and expected lifespan can better gauge the distance that China needs to tread to achieve healthy aging, she said, so her policy advice is to close such a gap by lengthening expected healthy lifespan.

 

Though China’s labor force has come down in recent years as a result of aging, its absolute size remains large, she said. The crucial thing to do is to achieve its efficient and effective use. Prof. Lei pointed out that urban senior citizens, especially females, hold a vast working potential to be tapped.

 

Regarding talks on raising retirement age, Prof. Lei analyzed some issues in the labor market and zoomed in on the current pay-as-you-go pension scheme. As aging continues, the pension system can be expected to run into deficit in some parts of the country; therefore, adjustment to the scheme is imperative, she said. Accumulated personal pension accounts offer some advantages to alleviating pressures brought about by aging, but transition from the current scheme to it will require sound considerations for existing retirees, low-income groups, and some others.

Prof. Lei Xiaoyan: Research and Policy Considerations on Population Aging

May 31-2024   



At the Academic Afternoon Tea (AAT) on May 27, Prof. Lei Xiaoyan shared her thoughts on the topic Population Aging: Academic Research and Policy Contemplations. She is PKU Boya Distinguished Professor, Secretary of NSD CCP Committee, Director of NSD Academic Committee, Professor of Economics, Director of PKU Center for Healthy Aging and Development Studies, and Ministry of Education’s Changjiang Scholar Distinguished Professor of Economics. The event was hosted by Prof. Zhang Dandan of the NSD. AAT features lectures aimed at promoting academic exchange and collaboration among NSD faculty members and students.

 

Prof. Lei said that the world has seen a decline in the proportion of children to the global population since the 1960s and a surge in that of elderly people since 2010. The two trends can be attributed to the continued slide in global fertility rate and a marked rise in life expectancy. Notably, on these two metrics China has outpaced the world average by a big margin, which underscores the magnitude of China’s population aging issue.

 

Against this backdrop, Prof. Lei proposed the concept of ‘healthy aging’, which seeks to highlight the significance of health span, rather than life span, for delineating the elderly’s life quality. Therein arises a key question: how far away is China from the goal of realizing healthy aging? Prof. Lei cited China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), which found that a high percentage of China’s senior residents suffer incapacitation, which escalates as they age and is particularly evident among those above 70 years old (especially females). The incapacitation ratio forms the tip of the iceberg that points to the importance of predicting expected healthy lifespan. The gap between healthy lifespan and expected lifespan can better gauge the distance that China needs to tread to achieve healthy aging, she said, so her policy advice is to close such a gap by lengthening expected healthy lifespan.

 

Though China’s labor force has come down in recent years as a result of aging, its absolute size remains large, she said. The crucial thing to do is to achieve its efficient and effective use. Prof. Lei pointed out that urban senior citizens, especially females, hold a vast working potential to be tapped.

 

Regarding talks on raising retirement age, Prof. Lei analyzed some issues in the labor market and zoomed in on the current pay-as-you-go pension scheme. As aging continues, the pension system can be expected to run into deficit in some parts of the country; therefore, adjustment to the scheme is imperative, she said. Accumulated personal pension accounts offer some advantages to alleviating pressures brought about by aging, but transition from the current scheme to it will require sound considerations for existing retirees, low-income groups, and some others.