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China's Demographic Situation and Relevant Policy Recommendations

Dec 16-2025   



*This article is based on a speech delivered by Zhang Junni, Tenured Associate Professor at Peking University’s National School of Development. The original version was published in the New Economist.

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Demographic Trends

If age-specific fertility and mortality rates remain at 2023 levels and there is no international migration, China’s population would return to around 400 million after 2083. Concurrently, the population structure would take on an extremely pronounced inverted-pyramid shape. China has now experienced three consecutive years of negative population growth, with demographic shifts occurring at an accelerated pace. In 2024, China’s total population was 1.41 billion, yet only 15.6% of this population was aged 65 and above. Consequently, the full impact of declining population size and an ageing society may not yet be apparent.

What challenges will population decline and ageing present? Auguste Comte, the French sociologist often termed the father of sociology, once stated: “Population is destiny”.  This means that a nation’s population determines its fate.

In the long term, population decline and ageing will hinder innovation. They will also inevitably impact and disrupt the overall economy. On the one hand, the working-age population is shrinking, and on the other, aggregate demand is falling. At the same time, expenditure on pensions, healthcare and nursing services will surge significantly owing to an ageing population. Crucially, a nation with a smaller and older population will see its influence and voice diminish substantially across all spheres.

So, how should we address this situation? A nation’s population size is influenced by birth rates, death rates and immigration. Since life expectancy cannot be increased indefinitely and large-scale international immigration is not an option, the only feasible solution is to increase fertility rates. This is our only viable national policy.

Experience from other countries shows that increasing fertility requires a coherent set of policies that support families, regulate the labour market, and provide education and healthcare, among other things. These policies must address diverse public needs while maintaining relative stability. We should heed this lesson and elevate population issues to a higher strategic priority before our nation’s demographic situation becomes critically severe.

Policy Recommendations

First, we must transform the highly competitive educational environment by encouraging collaboration within education. Compared with the general secondary education system, our vocational secondary education system is underdeveloped, and much of the content taught in vocational education does not yet align with future societal needs. Basic education should provide a more relaxed environment, allowing pupils sufficient time for deep reflection, collaborative exploration and innovation. The inertia of excessive exam preparation and internal competition cultivated during this stage persists into university education.

Second, we must foster environments that encourage diverse development and cooperation in order to minimise internal competition. South Korea is a pertinent case in point. Currently boasting the world’s lowest total fertility rate, the South Korean government has introduced various policies to encourage childbirth. However, despite these efforts, internal competition remains severe and birth rates remain low. A key factor is that the most promising opportunities in South Korea are concentrated within large conglomerates and the civil service. Consequently, individuals compete fiercely from a young age for these pathways. Therefore, it is crucial to foster environments that support diverse development and create more opportunities.

Third, there needs to be early planning for immigration. This is a highly sensitive topic, yet it is something that we must consider proactively. In recent years, Japan has effectively become a major immigration destination. In 2024, the Japanese government launched a new initiative to increase the total number of skilled foreign workers entering the country to 800,000 within five years. China could certainly learn from this approach. As well as attracting high-level talent, consideration could be given to specific sectors, such as domestic care services. If our nation were to contemplate large-scale immigration in the future, it would be advisable to prioritise countries with which we share greater affinity in terms of blood ties and cultural heritage, in order to minimise potential conflicts arising from migration.

China's Demographic Situation and Relevant Policy Recommendations

Dec 16-2025   



*This article is based on a speech delivered by Zhang Junni, Tenured Associate Professor at Peking University’s National School of Development. The original version was published in the New Economist.

image.png

Demographic Trends

If age-specific fertility and mortality rates remain at 2023 levels and there is no international migration, China’s population would return to around 400 million after 2083. Concurrently, the population structure would take on an extremely pronounced inverted-pyramid shape. China has now experienced three consecutive years of negative population growth, with demographic shifts occurring at an accelerated pace. In 2024, China’s total population was 1.41 billion, yet only 15.6% of this population was aged 65 and above. Consequently, the full impact of declining population size and an ageing society may not yet be apparent.

What challenges will population decline and ageing present? Auguste Comte, the French sociologist often termed the father of sociology, once stated: “Population is destiny”.  This means that a nation’s population determines its fate.

In the long term, population decline and ageing will hinder innovation. They will also inevitably impact and disrupt the overall economy. On the one hand, the working-age population is shrinking, and on the other, aggregate demand is falling. At the same time, expenditure on pensions, healthcare and nursing services will surge significantly owing to an ageing population. Crucially, a nation with a smaller and older population will see its influence and voice diminish substantially across all spheres.

So, how should we address this situation? A nation’s population size is influenced by birth rates, death rates and immigration. Since life expectancy cannot be increased indefinitely and large-scale international immigration is not an option, the only feasible solution is to increase fertility rates. This is our only viable national policy.

Experience from other countries shows that increasing fertility requires a coherent set of policies that support families, regulate the labour market, and provide education and healthcare, among other things. These policies must address diverse public needs while maintaining relative stability. We should heed this lesson and elevate population issues to a higher strategic priority before our nation’s demographic situation becomes critically severe.

Policy Recommendations

First, we must transform the highly competitive educational environment by encouraging collaboration within education. Compared with the general secondary education system, our vocational secondary education system is underdeveloped, and much of the content taught in vocational education does not yet align with future societal needs. Basic education should provide a more relaxed environment, allowing pupils sufficient time for deep reflection, collaborative exploration and innovation. The inertia of excessive exam preparation and internal competition cultivated during this stage persists into university education.

Second, we must foster environments that encourage diverse development and cooperation in order to minimise internal competition. South Korea is a pertinent case in point. Currently boasting the world’s lowest total fertility rate, the South Korean government has introduced various policies to encourage childbirth. However, despite these efforts, internal competition remains severe and birth rates remain low. A key factor is that the most promising opportunities in South Korea are concentrated within large conglomerates and the civil service. Consequently, individuals compete fiercely from a young age for these pathways. Therefore, it is crucial to foster environments that support diverse development and create more opportunities.

Third, there needs to be early planning for immigration. This is a highly sensitive topic, yet it is something that we must consider proactively. In recent years, Japan has effectively become a major immigration destination. In 2024, the Japanese government launched a new initiative to increase the total number of skilled foreign workers entering the country to 800,000 within five years. China could certainly learn from this approach. As well as attracting high-level talent, consideration could be given to specific sectors, such as domestic care services. If our nation were to contemplate large-scale immigration in the future, it would be advisable to prioritise countries with which we share greater affinity in terms of blood ties and cultural heritage, in order to minimise potential conflicts arising from migration.